The results of the last opinion poll produced in Iceland on the attitute towards membership of the European Union not only showed a large majority against joining the EU but also a majority unhappy with the application for membership the Icelandic government issued in July.
This probably came as a surprise to many people since earlier polls had shown a large majority for membership talks with the EU. However, at the same time polls were usually showing a majority opposed to an EU membership application.
This simply supports what those against EU membership in Iceland have been claiming for years that the majority of Icelanders don't want a formal EU application but some kind of an informal scouting talks just to see exactly what the EU has to offer.
So in short the Icelandic people don't support the government's EU application. No wonder that we have never before seen as much opposition to EU membership in the polls.
9/15/2009
Never as much opposition to EU membership in Iceland
A new opinion poll was published today (September 15) in Iceland showing more opposition to membership of the European Union than has ever been seen before. The poll was produced by Capacent Gallup for the Federation of Icelandic Industries but its leadership favours joining the EU.
According to the poll 43.2 percent of Icelanders are unhappy with the EU application the Icelandic government delivered in July after it was being accepted narrowly by the Althing, the Icelandic parliament. 39.6 percent are happy with the application.
More than half of Icelanders, or 50.2 percent, are opposed to joining the EU while 32.7 percent favour the step. In another poll by Capacent Gallup published in August where the same question was asked 48.5 percent were against EU membership and 34.7 percent were in favour.
Finally 61.5 percent said they would vote against EU membership if a referendum was held now, 38.5 percent said they would vote in favour. Of those 38.6 percent said they would definitely vote against but only 16.1% said they would definitely vote in favour.
The poll was produced from August 25 to September 10, 1649 people were polled and 52.3 percent participated.
Sources:
Fleiri andvígir en hlynntir ESB-aðild (Morgunblaðið September 15, 2009)
Andstaðan við aðild að ESB er í hámarki (Vísir.is September 15, 2009)
Andstaða við Evrópusambandsaðild í hámarki (Amx.is September 15, 2009)
According to the poll 43.2 percent of Icelanders are unhappy with the EU application the Icelandic government delivered in July after it was being accepted narrowly by the Althing, the Icelandic parliament. 39.6 percent are happy with the application.
More than half of Icelanders, or 50.2 percent, are opposed to joining the EU while 32.7 percent favour the step. In another poll by Capacent Gallup published in August where the same question was asked 48.5 percent were against EU membership and 34.7 percent were in favour.
Finally 61.5 percent said they would vote against EU membership if a referendum was held now, 38.5 percent said they would vote in favour. Of those 38.6 percent said they would definitely vote against but only 16.1% said they would definitely vote in favour.
The poll was produced from August 25 to September 10, 1649 people were polled and 52.3 percent participated.
Sources:
Fleiri andvígir en hlynntir ESB-aðild (Morgunblaðið September 15, 2009)
Andstaðan við aðild að ESB er í hámarki (Vísir.is September 15, 2009)
Andstaða við Evrópusambandsaðild í hámarki (Amx.is September 15, 2009)
8/04/2009
Majority of Icelanders against EU membership
The results of a new poll in Iceland produced by Capacent Gallup for the think-tank Andriki shows a majority of Icelanders opposed to a membership of the European Union. Some 48.5 percent are opposed to EU membership and 34.7 percent are in favour. 16.7 percent remain undecided.
Measuring only those in favour or against some 58.3 percent oppose EU membership while 41.7 percent favour the step.
Last poll on Icelander's attitute towards EU membership was published in the beginning of May this year also by Capacent Gallup for the state radio Ríkisútvarpið showing 38.6 percent in against and 39 percent in favour.
This means that the No side has gained 10 percent since the beginning of May while the Yes side has lost more than 4 percent.
Sources:
Andríki August 4, 2009
Fleiri andvígir aðild að ESB og vilja þjóðaratkvæðagreiðslu (Morgunblaðið August 4, 2009)
Mikill meirihluti vill viðræður (Ríkisútvarpið May 5, 2009)
Measuring only those in favour or against some 58.3 percent oppose EU membership while 41.7 percent favour the step.
Last poll on Icelander's attitute towards EU membership was published in the beginning of May this year also by Capacent Gallup for the state radio Ríkisútvarpið showing 38.6 percent in against and 39 percent in favour.
This means that the No side has gained 10 percent since the beginning of May while the Yes side has lost more than 4 percent.
Sources:
Andríki August 4, 2009
Fleiri andvígir aðild að ESB og vilja þjóðaratkvæðagreiðslu (Morgunblaðið August 4, 2009)
Mikill meirihluti vill viðræður (Ríkisútvarpið May 5, 2009)
7/31/2009
Has Iceland really adopted two-thirds of EU legislation?
Since the end of last year it has been repeatedly claimed in foreign media that Iceland has adopted at least two-thirds of all the legislation of the European Union through the country's membership of the European Economic Area (EEA). Among those who have said this is Olli Rehn, the EU's commissioner for enlargement, for example to the AFP news agency at the beginning of February.
Until a few years ago, certain Icelanders in favour of joining the European Union on a regular basis claimed the same, that Iceland was adopting 70 and even up to 90 percent of EU laws through the EEA agreement. This claim was repeatedly put forward without being founded on any studies at all.
In the spring of 2005 research carried out by the EFTA [European Free Trade Association] secretariat in Brussels at the request of the Icelandic foreign ministry, however, revealed that only 6.5 percent of all EU legislation was subjected to the EEA agreement between 1994 (when it came into force) and 2004.
In March 2007 a report published by a special committee on Europe commissioned by the Icelandic prime minister, showed that some 2,500 pieces of EU legislation had been adopted in Iceland during the first decade of the EEA agreement. The study also found that about 22 percent of Icelandic laws passed by the parliament originated from the EU during the same period of time.
The totality of EU legislation is according to various sources around 25,000 to 30,000 legal acts. Total Icelandic laws and regulations, however, are around 5,000. Of those there are less than 1,000 laws, the rest is regulations. Even if the entire legislation of Iceland came from the EU it would only be around 20 percent of the total acquis communautaire.
So how is it possible to reach the conclusion that Iceland has already adopted "at least two-thirds of European legislation"?
Hjörtur J. Guðmundsson
(Previously published on Euobserver.com)
Until a few years ago, certain Icelanders in favour of joining the European Union on a regular basis claimed the same, that Iceland was adopting 70 and even up to 90 percent of EU laws through the EEA agreement. This claim was repeatedly put forward without being founded on any studies at all.
In the spring of 2005 research carried out by the EFTA [European Free Trade Association] secretariat in Brussels at the request of the Icelandic foreign ministry, however, revealed that only 6.5 percent of all EU legislation was subjected to the EEA agreement between 1994 (when it came into force) and 2004.
In March 2007 a report published by a special committee on Europe commissioned by the Icelandic prime minister, showed that some 2,500 pieces of EU legislation had been adopted in Iceland during the first decade of the EEA agreement. The study also found that about 22 percent of Icelandic laws passed by the parliament originated from the EU during the same period of time.
The totality of EU legislation is according to various sources around 25,000 to 30,000 legal acts. Total Icelandic laws and regulations, however, are around 5,000. Of those there are less than 1,000 laws, the rest is regulations. Even if the entire legislation of Iceland came from the EU it would only be around 20 percent of the total acquis communautaire.
So how is it possible to reach the conclusion that Iceland has already adopted "at least two-thirds of European legislation"?
Hjörtur J. Guðmundsson
(Previously published on Euobserver.com)
7/23/2009
What have the polls been saying in Iceland?
Since the beginning of this year the results of most opinion polls in Iceland have been unfavourable for those who want the country to become a part of the European Union. However, it has become quite obvious that it depends which questions are being asked. Let us take a look at how the polls have behaved through the years including this one:
Polls asking if people wanted to start membership talks (aðildarviðræður) with the EU have almost always resulted in a majority in favour.
Polls asking if people wanted to apply for membership (umsókn um aðild) of the EU have almost always resulted in a majority against.
Polls asking if people wanted to join the EU have usually resulted in a 50/50 situation.
The first two examples obviously contradict each other. But this has an explanation. For years people in favour of EU membership have claimed it was possible to enter some kind of a non-obligational "scouting talks" with the EU just to find out what kind of a deal Iceland would be able to get.
Many people in Iceland find the EU issue very complicated so there has been much interest in these kinds of talks. But at the same time people are opposed to a formal application for EU membership. This explaines the contradicting results of polls asking about starting membership talks and applying for membership.
Those in favour of EU membership have always pointed to the polls asking for membership talks as a token of the alledged support in Iceland for applying for membership. But when everything is taken into the picture it must be assumed that there is simply no majority in Iceland for either applying for EU membership or joining the EU.
The Icelandic government, which is led by the only pro-EU political party in Iceland (The Social Democratic Alliance), opposed a proposal to put the application for EU membership to the people in a referendum. The obvious reason is because the government knew applying for membership would be rejected.
However, Icelanders will get a referendum on whether to actually join the EU or not when the accession talks are over.
Polls asking if people wanted to start membership talks (aðildarviðræður) with the EU have almost always resulted in a majority in favour.
Polls asking if people wanted to apply for membership (umsókn um aðild) of the EU have almost always resulted in a majority against.
Polls asking if people wanted to join the EU have usually resulted in a 50/50 situation.
The first two examples obviously contradict each other. But this has an explanation. For years people in favour of EU membership have claimed it was possible to enter some kind of a non-obligational "scouting talks" with the EU just to find out what kind of a deal Iceland would be able to get.
Many people in Iceland find the EU issue very complicated so there has been much interest in these kinds of talks. But at the same time people are opposed to a formal application for EU membership. This explaines the contradicting results of polls asking about starting membership talks and applying for membership.
Those in favour of EU membership have always pointed to the polls asking for membership talks as a token of the alledged support in Iceland for applying for membership. But when everything is taken into the picture it must be assumed that there is simply no majority in Iceland for either applying for EU membership or joining the EU.
The Icelandic government, which is led by the only pro-EU political party in Iceland (The Social Democratic Alliance), opposed a proposal to put the application for EU membership to the people in a referendum. The obvious reason is because the government knew applying for membership would be rejected.
However, Icelanders will get a referendum on whether to actually join the EU or not when the accession talks are over.
7/17/2009
Report: Icelandic government to apply for EU membership
Yesterday was a black day in Iceland when the Icelandic parliament narrowly voted in favour of a proposal allowing the government to apply for membership of the European Union. The vote was very close and the issue had been debated heavily for a number of days in the parliament. 33 MPs said yes, 28 said no, and two did not vote. A proposal from the opposition that the decision to apply would be a subject to a special referendum was rejected narrowly with 32 votes against 30. The government (backed by most of its MPs) opposed that proposal strongly which suggests it simply does not believe that the people are in favour of this step.
Five government MPs rejected the proposal, all from the junior coalition partner The Left Green Movement (Vinstrihreyfingin - grænt framboð) which is according to its policy strongly opposed to EU membership. Eight of the party's MPs voted in favour and one did not vote. Seven of these eight are nevertheless opposed to membership but voted in favour in order to secure a continued coalition government with the pro-EU Social Democratic Alliance (Samfylkingin). A number of them gave a short speech in the parliament before voting where they claimed their strong oppostion to EU membership while drawing up a very negative picture of the union.
The voting in the parliament:
The Social Democratic Alliance (social democrats): Yes 20, No 0, Abstain 0.
The Independence Party (conservatives/liberals): Yes 1, No 14, Abstain 1.
The Left Green Movement (socialists/greens): Yes 8, No 5, Abstain 1.
The Progressive Party (centrists/agrarians): Yes 3, No 6, Abstain 0.
The Civilian Movement: Yes 1, No 3, Abstain 0.
Total: Yes 33, No 28, Abstain 2.
Much of the debate prior to the vote, both in the parliament and among the people, were about the fact that the Left Greent Movement was according to its policy strongly opposed to EU membership which meant that it did not have any permission from its voters to take part in applying for EU membership. Last general elections in Iceland took place on April 25 this year. Many associations within the party from various parts of the country prior to the vote protested the party leadership's support along with many of the party's ordinary members and voters. Political speculators in Iceland have been suggesting this could lead to some serious internal problems within the party.
The government had to count on the support from few MPs in the oppostion to get its proposal through. One of the government minister even said no, the minister for agriculture and fisheries, who comes from the Left Green Movement. In addition the leader of the Left Green Movement said yesterday to the Icelandic media that his party assumed every right to stop the accession talks at any time if it believes the EU is not meeting its demands. According to the government's proposal the Left Green Movement has also assumed the right to oppose a possible final accession treaty. Whether or not the party will actually do either this is yet another token of how half-heartedly it is on the issue to say the very least. This all simply means the government is very broken on this issue.
The government has already as of this morning formally announced the application to both the Swedish EU Presidency and the European Commission. The formal application is expected to be put forward at the meeting of EU foreign ministers on July 27. Accession talks are expected to begin in February 2010 given the application will be accepted and a possible date of accession according to the government is January 1, 2013 which means a referendum could take place in 2012. However, this whole process could take place sooner depending on the speed and progress of the accession talks.
The last opinion poll in Iceland by Gallup showed a 50/50 situation regarding the question whether people wanted to join the EU or not.
Hjörtur J. Guðmundsson
Five government MPs rejected the proposal, all from the junior coalition partner The Left Green Movement (Vinstrihreyfingin - grænt framboð) which is according to its policy strongly opposed to EU membership. Eight of the party's MPs voted in favour and one did not vote. Seven of these eight are nevertheless opposed to membership but voted in favour in order to secure a continued coalition government with the pro-EU Social Democratic Alliance (Samfylkingin). A number of them gave a short speech in the parliament before voting where they claimed their strong oppostion to EU membership while drawing up a very negative picture of the union.
The voting in the parliament:
The Social Democratic Alliance (social democrats): Yes 20, No 0, Abstain 0.
The Independence Party (conservatives/liberals): Yes 1, No 14, Abstain 1.
The Left Green Movement (socialists/greens): Yes 8, No 5, Abstain 1.
The Progressive Party (centrists/agrarians): Yes 3, No 6, Abstain 0.
The Civilian Movement: Yes 1, No 3, Abstain 0.
Total: Yes 33, No 28, Abstain 2.
Much of the debate prior to the vote, both in the parliament and among the people, were about the fact that the Left Greent Movement was according to its policy strongly opposed to EU membership which meant that it did not have any permission from its voters to take part in applying for EU membership. Last general elections in Iceland took place on April 25 this year. Many associations within the party from various parts of the country prior to the vote protested the party leadership's support along with many of the party's ordinary members and voters. Political speculators in Iceland have been suggesting this could lead to some serious internal problems within the party.
The government had to count on the support from few MPs in the oppostion to get its proposal through. One of the government minister even said no, the minister for agriculture and fisheries, who comes from the Left Green Movement. In addition the leader of the Left Green Movement said yesterday to the Icelandic media that his party assumed every right to stop the accession talks at any time if it believes the EU is not meeting its demands. According to the government's proposal the Left Green Movement has also assumed the right to oppose a possible final accession treaty. Whether or not the party will actually do either this is yet another token of how half-heartedly it is on the issue to say the very least. This all simply means the government is very broken on this issue.
The government has already as of this morning formally announced the application to both the Swedish EU Presidency and the European Commission. The formal application is expected to be put forward at the meeting of EU foreign ministers on July 27. Accession talks are expected to begin in February 2010 given the application will be accepted and a possible date of accession according to the government is January 1, 2013 which means a referendum could take place in 2012. However, this whole process could take place sooner depending on the speed and progress of the accession talks.
The last opinion poll in Iceland by Gallup showed a 50/50 situation regarding the question whether people wanted to join the EU or not.
Hjörtur J. Guðmundsson
6/22/2009
EU membership would not have saved Iceland
Iceland's former Prime Minister, Geir Haarde, said in a lecture at the Institute of European Affairs in Dublin, Ireland, that he did not believe membership of the European Union would have saved Iceland from the "financial hurricane" which triggered the country's financial meltdown last autumn and the collapse of its three biggest banks, noting EU membership had not saved Latvia's economy from shrinking an expected 18 percent this year. Furthermore he pointed out that the Irish economy was expected to shrink between 10.75 and 12 percent this year while the expected percentage in the case of Iceland was 10 percent.
Sources:
Haarde in Dublin: Ireland worse than Iceland (Icenews.is June 22, 2009)
Irish GDP will shrink faster than Iceland's, says ex-PM (Independent.ie June 19, 2009)
6/02/2009
EU membership talks considered a low priority
Entering membership negotiations with the European Union is not considered urgent by Icelanders according to the results of a new poll by Capacent Gallup for Heimssýn, the Icelandic No movement. Majority of those who take a stand believes that the government should make such negotiations either a low priority or a very low priority.
Only 42 percent believe it urgent to enter membership negotiations with the EU with only 22 percent seeing that as a high priority. On the other hand 44 percent think it should be a little or very little priority to start such negotiations with 32 percent claiming the latter.
At the same time an overwhelming majority says it is more important to solve the financial problems of Icelandic households, or 95 percent, and Icelandic companies, 92 percent.
The poll was carried out May 20-27 and 1284 people were polled.
Only 42 percent believe it urgent to enter membership negotiations with the EU with only 22 percent seeing that as a high priority. On the other hand 44 percent think it should be a little or very little priority to start such negotiations with 32 percent claiming the latter.
At the same time an overwhelming majority says it is more important to solve the financial problems of Icelandic households, or 95 percent, and Icelandic companies, 92 percent.
The poll was carried out May 20-27 and 1284 people were polled.
5/27/2009
A rather peculiar situation in Iceland
The new center-left government in Iceland, formed by the Left Green Movement and the Social Democratic Alliance, has come under heavy criticism for opening up the EU issue half-heartedly. The proposal to apply for EU membership, that has now been put to the parliament, has also been much criticised for being a very badly performed work. Not the least by the Progressive Party whom the pro-EU social democrats have counted on to get the proposal through since they cannot count on the MPs of the traditionally eurosceptic Left Green Movement for support. A number of Left Green Movement MPs have already announced publicly that they will not back the proposal which means the social democrats will need all the support they can get from the opposition.
On top of all this both the government parties claim the right to fight against a possible membership agreement according to the proposal. So this whole issue is quite peculiar to say the least and based on very fragile foundations. The social democrats are hoping to send an application to Brussels before July this summer but that may easily turn out to be very optimistic. The issue will most certainly be debated heavily in the coming weeks both in the parliament and outside it. That debate could quite easily take a very long time. On top of that it is far from being certain that the parliament will eventually vote in favour of the proposal whenever the voting will take place.
On top of all this both the government parties claim the right to fight against a possible membership agreement according to the proposal. So this whole issue is quite peculiar to say the least and based on very fragile foundations. The social democrats are hoping to send an application to Brussels before July this summer but that may easily turn out to be very optimistic. The issue will most certainly be debated heavily in the coming weeks both in the parliament and outside it. That debate could quite easily take a very long time. On top of that it is far from being certain that the parliament will eventually vote in favour of the proposal whenever the voting will take place.
5/11/2009
New government to propose membership talks with the EU
The new center-left government of Iceland has agreed that the foreign minister will put a proposal to the parliament after it rejoines on May 15 that an application for membership of the European Union will be sent to Brussels this summer. Before July according to the government's plans. The government, however, is completely split on the issue with the Social Democratic Alliance strongly in favour of membership but the junion colatition partner, the Left Green Movement, opposing the idea. Whether the parliament will accept the proposal is unclear.
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